Myanmar and the Game of Thrones

November 8, 2015 Yangon celebrated the first light of democracy with the historic victory of NLD party in the recently held national elections. The Aung San Suu Kyi led NLD party thrashed decades old military regime by securing overwhelming 79% votes in contested seats of both upper and lower houses of parliament. Few predicted the figures but many assured the victory.

The 2012 by-election in Myanmar set the momentum for NLD party for a series of win. Winning 43 of 45 contested seats, the stage was set for 2015 elections. The NLD party– with its promise of “change” – emphatically claimed the right to run Myanmar, and achieved what majority had doubted possible: a big enough majority ensured the power to choose the country’s next president, despite the military withholding constitutionally guaranteed 25 per cent of total parliamentary seats.

Even though the party had won the elections, the road to democracy is paved with many obstacles. Aung San Suu Kyi, the most favored leader of country had to deal with Article59f of Myanmar’s constitution, to successfully place herself as the future president of country. According to Article59f, which bars any person from the presidency whose children, spouse, or parents are of foreign nationality, barring Suu Kyi from holding the Myanmar’s top office. The NLD leader’s children, like her late husband Michael Airs, are British citizens.

To bypass this law, NLD will require changing the article

436 of the military-drafted constitution. The amendment requires two third of majority in both the houses and since the constitution reserves 25 percent of the seats in the lower house for military candidates, and another half are withheld by the military-backed, Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), Article 436 effectively gives the Myanmar military de facto veto over any changes.

Speculation is rife over who would be the next president, but the NLD senior party figures and leader have made it clear, that who so ever the president would be, it will act as a proxy.  

The future of Myanmar politics remains far from certain. Two things are however clear: that even after having serious military intervention the government will be led by NLD and party leader Suu Kyi and the old stakeholders (military) will continue to dominate extensive powers.

Aman Singhal

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